Reforming Nigeria's Financial Sector

Some of the world's most innovative and effective financial sector policy and regulation over the last five years has been in Nigeria, and led by Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria:

From Massacres to Miracles

A conversation with President Paul Kagame of Rwanda.

Holistic thinking on innovation and entrepreneurship

Most thinking about innovation and entrepreneurship tends to be atomistic. And for good reason: such is the breadth and depth of the subject matter that mastery of any one aspect requires considerable specialisation. However, this does not obviate the need for holistic thinking. Indeed, it increases the need for it. Prof. Calestous Juma of Harvard University and Prof. Daniel Isenberg of Babson College are two of the world's leading holistic thinkers on innovation and entrepreneurship, respectively.

2012 IIAG

The 2012 Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG) was launched today.

Chinese traders in Africa

The Brenthurst Foundation has recently published a fascinating study of Chinese traders in five African countries.

National Federation of Independent Business v. Sebelius

The US Supreme Court rules on Obamacare.

Poor Economics

In Poor Economics (2011), Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo claim to have discovered a radical new way to fight global poverty. Given the magnitude of the problem and the dismal failure of many previous "solutions", this is a significant claim. But does it have any merit?


Well, Banerjee and Duflo's fundamental idea of using randomised field trials to test various public policy alternatives is good...as far as it goes. Unfortunately, it doesn't go very far. It basically looks at lots of small-scale public policy problems and questions and investigates them rigorously, from the scientific perspective. Which is fine. I can't argue with good science. The trouble is this: Is this small-scale, bottom-up, micro-level approach really THE answer to global poverty? I don't think so. All the existing evidence from all the countries that have ever "developed" indicates that the answer must involve large-scale, top-down, macro-level policy solutions. Micro-level solutions are little more than palliatives.

Banerjee and Duflo neatly (and self-servingly) portray all existing thinking on economic development as falling into two opposing camps, pro-aid and anti-aid, and then claim that there is currently no definitive evidence to prove or disprove either of these camps. A rather convenient characterisation. Naturally, their work on randomised evaluations provides the brave new third way. Evidence-based, of course.

I understand their argument about a lack of evidence. The only problem is it happens to be factually and historically incorrect. Consider the case of Germany, East and West. Or Korea, North and South. Or even Zambia, pre-1991 and post-1991. These cases (and numerous others) provide ample controlled evidence of what really works and doesn't work in economic development.

But perhaps what's most disturbing about Banerjee and Duflo's work are its implicitly (and no doubt unintentional) racist assumptions. How come other countries (from the West, East and increasingly the global South) have been able to develop without the interventions of external do-gooders like Banerjee and Duflo? Why does the world suddenly need a different formula without which the countries of Africa and other underdeveloped parts of the world will be doomed to perpetual poverty?

Poor economics indeed.

The Gates are mine to open, As the Gates are mine to close

Bill Gates shared his thoughts about Africa with Stanford students on 4 April 2012 followed by a Q&A session. I admire Gates's business achievements and his foundation's humanitarian work, but his ideas about aid policy, however well-intentioned, are seriously misguided. I co-authored a 2009 FrontPage Magazine article explaining why.

Ideas for the 21st Century: A Challenge to the Sata Administration

A new article I wrote for Zambia Online.

J. M. Keynes vs. F. A. Hayek

Round 1:



Round 2:

All the T in China

(The titular "T" stands for Truth.)

In 1941, Henry Luce famously defined the 20th Century as the American Century. Seventy years later, few would argue with him. Recently, some have defined the 21st Century as the Chinese Century. Of course, a final, definitive verdict on this second pronouncement can only be passed a century from now, after all the evidence has come in and been thoroughly and thoughtfully examined. What is already clear, however, is the emergence, or perhaps more accurately, the arrival, of China as a 21st Century global power. Consequently, understanding China is vital for anyone who's interested in issues of global significance.

But where to start, and how to proceed? In the past, and indirectly. So I'm reading The Man Who Loved China, Simon Winchester's elegantly written biography of Joseph Needham (CH, FRS, FBA), author of the monumental and multi-volume Science and Civilisation in China. Needham was a remarkable character (to say the least), whose life spanned almost the entire 20th Century (1900-1995). The various distinctions he achieved as a scientist, historian, professor, author, linguist and administrator, were more than sufficient to populate multiple distinguished careers, let alone one. He was, and remains, the preeminent authority in the field of sinology, a position he is unlikely to relinquish any time soon, so formidable and foundational is his scholarship in that domain. Winchester focuses on the sinological aspects of Needham's work and career and thereby casts new light on China's history and its place in the modern world.

Wise men from the South East

The Economist this week has a special report on the future of the state. The government of Singapore, probably the world's most efficient and effective government of the last 50 years, provides a particularly interesting case study.

Achebe on Africa

From the New York Times:

Nigeria’s Promise, Africa’s Hope by Chinua Achebe

Myths and Menace

From Standpoint magazine: Eminently good sense by Nigel Lawson.

Education vs. Enlightenment

An alternative title for this post is: "The heart of darkness vs. The mind of light." If I succeed in explaining my point, you'll understand why by the end.

I was thinking about this in the context of the current crisis in the recent presidential elections in Ivory Coast. The incumbent, Laurent Gbagbo, has refused to concede defeat to his rival, Alassane Ouattara. (For the record, it should be noted that by all objective accounts Ouattara was the rightful winner, but that fact is not central to my argument.) Both men have claimed victory. Both men have been sworn in as president. Both men have appointed cabinets. And both men have the support of battle-ready armies. The proverbial meeting of the irresistible force and the immovable object, you might say. It's still unclear as to how this particular instance of that paradox will be resolved. But here's my point:

How is it and why is it that highly educated people like Gbagbo (a former university professor) and his cohorts (apparently, his new prime minister is a university professor and the president of the Constitutional Council which declared him the "winner" is also well educated) come to be the main actors in such a sordid drama? Isn't "Education" supposed to be the key to Africa's development? Evidently not.

Consider the alternative of "Enlightenment." Enlightenment is to Education what fuel is to an engine. Or, what the culture of civilisation is to the structure of civilisation. Development requires a marriage of the heart and the mind. Darkness of the heart will soon dim any lightness of the mind.

This, it seems to me, is the crux of the problem. The outward forms of development have been adopted, embraced even, but not sufficiently assimilated. The moral dimension is missing. Ideally, we should pursue both Education and Englightenment. But if we have to choose one of them, it had better be Enlightenment. Current events vividly illustrate the disastrous consequences of the opposite choice.

Why is Africa Poor?

Excellent article by Dr. Greg Mills, Director of the Brenthurst Foundation and author of a new book by the same title. Here's just one of the thoughts I liked:

Africa is not poor because its people do not work hard but because their productivity is too low.

2010 Ibrahim Index

The 201o Ibrahim Index was released this week.

Freedom of information and freedom of ideas

The temptation for governments to crush dissent on the alleged grounds of protecting national security is an ancient one. In 399 BC, Socrates was sentenced to death on charges of failing to pay due reverence to the gods of Athens and thereby corrupting the minds of Athenian youth. Socrates was condemned, in other words, for reasons of national security.

Unfortunately, not much has changed in the last 2,400 years. In Zambia, the ruling MMD has for a number of years now been pushing for statutory regulation of the media on the grounds of - you guessed it - national security. The Zambian media has, on the whole, displayed remarkable courage in strongly resisting such regulation. In South Africa, the ruling ANC is pushing for the establishment of a so-called Media Appeals Tribunal (MAT) and the enactment of the Protection of Information (POI) bill. Both the MAT and the POI bill have attracted strong opposition from the media, intellectuals, the general public, and even from more unexpected quarters, such as elements within the ANC itself, as well as its Alliance partners.

Freedom of information and freedom of ideas are essential ingredients of a strong, sustainable human society. Their presence does not guarantee success, it only makes success a possibility. Their absence, however, guarantees ultimate failure, no matter how convincing temporary success may seem.

Cool-Aid anyone?

According to The Right Honourable Tony Blair et al. in the Commission for Africa 2010 Report:

In that context, and in line with the recommendation of the 2005 report, the G20 should commit to increasing aid to Africa from 2010 onwards to a further $25 billion per annum by 2015.

Many Africans profoundly disagree. Just two examples:

• From The Telegraph (August 2010).
  

• From FrontPage Magazine (April 2009).
  

The role of the state

Martin Wolf: interesting as always.